Vice President Vance denies any backchannel communications. Wyckoff and Kushner have denied any financial impropriety or attempts to gain from the negotiations. And  The President has likewise agreed with Wyckoff and Kushner. [Drop Site Jul 15, 2026]

Regardless of the veracity of the allegations. The Iranian ploy to replace Wyckoff and Kushner with Vance was successful. The Iranians have not stated why they wanted Vance to lead the negotiations. But  Ipsism speculates that it may be based upon Vance's reticence towards the Epic Fury attacks and Vance's growing animosity towards Israel.

Vance has stated that his goal in the negotiations is to fulfill President Trump's wishes. That brings us to the document titled the “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran” (MOU).

Reviewing President Trump’s demands: we find that the President basically wanted to prevent Iran from ever  attaining a nuclear weapon. The President wanted to maintain the Strait of Hormuz as an open international waterway without tolls or fees or threats of violence. The President also wanted to remove the nuclear enriched material from Iran so that they could not use that material to  build an atomic weapon. So how did JD do?

While not versed in ‘diplomatic speak,’ Ipsism’s review of the MOU facially shows it to be a farcical document.

First, the MOU purports to decide how different countries will act in regard to the agreement. Specifically, Oman, Lebanon and, by reference as allies, Israel and presumably Iran’s allies – Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. Yet, none of these countries or groups were included in the negotiations, nor is there information to suggest that they were consulted before decisions were made regarding their fate. Israel has stated that it is not bound by the MOU as Israel  was not included in the negotiations. Oman has denied that it has made any agreement with Iran concerning the Straits of Hormuz.  Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis have had little to say about the MOU.

Paragraph 4 contains the glaring obscurity of stating that the US will withdraw from the proximity of Iran. Does that include Iraq? Saudi Arabia? The other Gulf states? The entire Arabian peninsula (Bin Laden’s goal)?

Paragraph 5 states that “Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only,”  (emphasis added). Sentences later we see what the future fate of the Straits will be.— “The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz.” Fars News (a news agency in Iran that is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)) reported (Jun 15), “The source said that Iran would accept toll-free passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz for only 60 days, adding that Tehran planned afterward to offer safety, navigation, environmental and insurance services and use revenue from commercial ship traffic for economic development.”  -- Not exactly the long term free passage envisioned by President Trump and the rest of the West.

Perhaps most egregious is paragraph 6. After repeated assurances from the administration that ‘not one dime would go to Iran's reconstruction,’ we find the following in paragraph 6 – “The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” -- It's all well and good to say that the Gulf states will provide the money for reconstruction, but if they don't, the United States has to pony up $300 billion. Latest reports were that the Gulf States had agreed to provide only half of the amount, leaving the US on the hook for $150 Billion taxpayer dollars.

While paragraph 8 expresses an intention to dismantle the Iranian nuclear program, “The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven,” with a vague mention of the method expressed in paragraph 7, which is nonexistent. However, taken literally, Paragraph 9 vitiates Paragraph 8 provisions -- “The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region” (emphasis added).

In previous negotiations, Kushner had suggested that frozen funds be used to buy US agricultural products: to be distributed to the people of Iran. Paragraph 11 dismisses this idea and allows Iran to distribute frozen funds as it sees fit, stating that the frozen ($24Billion) assets “shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (emphasis added).

The MOU has been praised by many, primarily the noncombatant countries, some of the Gulf States and even the Pope. However, there has been widespread condemnation from the Iranians, members of Congress and the Senate and especially Israel. Prior to the signing of the MOU, President Trump was highly protective of the MOU, Calling those who objected to the MOU “fools”. The President’s staff have been especially vicious in attacking Senator Ted Cruz and former CIA Director / Secretary of State Mike Pompeo who seriously questioned elements of the MOU. [Fox News] These attacks have largely subsided after the Iranians so quickly violated the MOU by firing on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

Vice President Vance has not been accepting of criticism regarding the MOU. In an appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience, Vance basically had the diplomatic equivalent of a temper tantrum, telling the Israelis that they should not be criticizing their only friend in the whole world and that they could “Go to Hell” [The New Arab] .

The rapid collapse of the MOU came as no surprise to most of the critics. At this time, the only people interested in reviving the 14 point MOU is a faction of the Iranians.

How does the collapse of the MOU affect Vice President Vance?

Politico says that the responsibility for the MOU falls squarely with the vice president.

A second former official said the broken ceasefire was inevitable, and likely to be the status quo for months because the memorandum of understanding failed to address two key disagreements: the linkage of Lebanon to the Hormuz ceasefire, as well as control over the strait. And the official didn’t mince words, arguing that its likely failure will fall on the vice president.

“He is very, very much the person with the most to lose,” the former official said. “This MOU is likely a loser, and it’s his.”

Ipsism agrees with Politico's assessment.

The debacle of the MOU should effectively bar the Vice President from running for the Presidency in 2028.

Not only did Vance fail to accomplish the President's stated goals, but the MOU is also a confusing and poorly constructed document. Prior to Obama's deal with Iran, it was widely said that 'a bad deal was worse than no deal'. Yet, Mr. Vance decided to accept a bad deal rather than saying that he could not reach a deal. Compounding the problems with the MOU, Vance insulted our greatest ally in the Middle East and basically told them to shut up and take whatever the United States does.  This will only promote the anti-Semitic allegations against Mr. Vance. Certainly, this casts a dark shadow over Vance’s ability to negotiate as well as his ability to critically assess foreign powers. Ipsism opines that if Mr. Vance wins the election in 2028, his administration will be only slightly more successful than Jimmy Carter’s. It will be tainted by indecision, contradiction and ineptitude; antagonizing allies with whom JD has ideological differences.

Ipsism cannot say what the Republicans will do in 2028, but Ipsism feels that the Republicans would be well advised to steer clear of Mr. Vance as its nominee. Ipsism cannot tell the Republicans what to do … just don’t say I didn’t warn you.